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Steve Jobs Hints At The Demise Of Notebook Computers

 
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Smallwheels
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2010 4:15 pm    Post subject: Steve Jobs Hints At The Demise Of Notebook Computers Reply with quote

I have watched the presentation announcing the iPad three times. Each time I see it I notice something else.

Here is something that I believe gave a HUGE clue about the future of Apple's computers. It came at the very end of the presentation. Steve Jobs said in a very emphatic way that once you use an iPad you won't want to go back to anything else. That isn't an exact quotation but it is just about what he said.

What does that mean? Steve Jobs is very excited about the iPad. He emphasized that the iPad is Apple's most advanced technology. If people won't want to go back then what will they want in the future? If Steve Jobs knows that people will not want to go back to conventional computers then you have got to believe that he and Apple are now designing many more of their computers to be touch screen devices.

It is my belief that Apple will stop making conventional laptop computers within a couple of years. This might seem like a wild prediction today but in two years it will seem more believable.

Will the new tablet computers be highly modified versions of Snow Leopard? I think that Snow Leopard will be replaced within two years with something new that is designed to work as a desktop OS with a multi-touch interface in addition to a keyboard. They are developing touch actuated computer interfaces to connect to desktop computers right now.

I predict that Apple will only have two desktop computers within two years and that they will be high end Mac Pros running a new OS. All of the other tablet devices will run a different OS though they will be able to share files with any other computer. They will also work with external monitors for video playback.

I also predict that the current Mac Mini is the last version they will make and that they won't refresh it again. Remember the long gap between updates back in 2007? The iPad is already encroaching into the sweet price range of the Mac Mini.

Apple will create a more powerful version of the iPad to supplant the Mac Mini. It will use a USB cable connected to external devices for watching video or storing files.

I think the optical disc as a storage medium is on the way out, but newer devices will still need to be able to access all of the old discs that are out there for a few more years.

Other computer manufacturers are creating their own tablet computers. Now that technology is good enough to make quality touch screen devices and millions of people are accustomed to using touch screen smart phones, it means that the beginning of the touch screen tablet computer age has begun.

What do you think?

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JohnnyBoy
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2010 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is someone who thinks that the iPad may replace their notebook computer, and in the process secure the future of their desktop machine...
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2010/02/could-the-ipad-save-the-desktop-computer/
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Fox
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2010 5:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Apple ever stopped making all desktop computers except for the Mac Pro, I would stop buying Apple computers because I don't ever want to pay more than $1,500 for a desktop model and I don't want that behemoth on my desk. The big pluses to a desktop computer vs an iPad-like device are: (1) large monitor; (2) real keyboard; (3) power in the form of the graphics card and the processor; and (4) storage capacity. To get these, I can now spend as little as $600, the cost of a mini. To eliminate the mini and iMac and make desktop computing attractive on the Apple platform, either the iPad would have to expand tremendously in power and function, or the Mac Pro would have to become much cheaper (and much smaller in my case).

I'm sure there will be a day when iPad-like devices will be much more capable than they are now, but it will take awhile before one could potentially be a desktop substitute. The quickest fix might be a dock or connector that would allow the iPad to be used as a desktop when it's attached, but it would still require lots more power to be effective. Could it ever be like a mini if docked? Maybe in the future.
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Smallwheels
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 27, 2010 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fox wrote:
I would stop buying Apple computers because I don't ever want to pay more than $1,500 for a desktop model and I don't want that behemoth on my desk.

Could it ever be like a mini if docked? Maybe in the future.


There is really no reason for the Mac Pro to be as large as it is now. It could be made much smaller. It probably will be made smaller in the near future.

A more powerful iPad with external connectors to a monitor and card reader would make a good all around computer. I intend to buy the smallest iPad and just use memory sticks or cards for more storage.

If the iPad can accept the USB Mac keyboard then I'm already set for that type of input. If not I'll get a bluetooth keyboard.


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Smithcraft
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2010 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I won't buy an iPad until I can run what I want. If Apple wants to keep it locked down, then I'll get a notebook/laptop that I can run what I want on it, and that has a keyboard.

Also, when isn't Steve Jobs excited about a product? Well, other than Pepsi that is? Wink

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Smallwheels
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:07 pm    Post subject: Here Is The Exact Quotation Reply with quote

This is what Steve Jobs said at the end of the iPad presentation; "When you feel all this power, and this much fun, and the internet in your hands, you'll never wanna go back."

I suppose the "...go back" phrase could be referring to smart phones and laptops in the context of his presentation. Since he dismissed netbooks as being inferior I don't think he was referring to those devices.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2010 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I had the time, and the interest, I would watch the whole thing again...

But like I said, if I can't run any app that I want to run, then it's useless to me.

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gigaguy
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 28, 2010 10:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I strongly hope that the demise of a small headless Mac (mini) is not evident.
The iPad is well and good but is no replacement for my Mac Mini set up. I use my HDTV (52") as a mac monitor. I do not want to hook up a tablet screen to my tv. Since Apple--Jobs has sworn they are not interested in making TVs- please leave my Mini alone. and no, an Apple TV will not do.
My Mini > HDTV is the best PC setup I have ever had.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 3:03 am    Post subject: Re: Steve Jobs Hints At The Demise Of Notebook Computers Reply with quote

Smallwheels wrote:
It is my belief that Apple will stop making conventional laptop computers within a couple of years. This might seem like a wild prediction today but in two years it will seem more believable.

I predict that Apple will only have two desktop computers within two years and that they will be high end Mac Pros running a new OS. All of the other tablet devices will run a different OS though they will be able to share files with any other computer. They will also work with external monitors for video playback.

I also predict that the current Mac Mini is the last version they will make and that they won't refresh it again.

What do you think?

I think that you don't gain market share by making less product that customers are already buying. You get them to buy more.

Devices like the iPad may be a way that personal computing is going - but I doubt we'll see an end to all others simply because you are reading a lot into a sentence of some marketing hype.

There have been pad computers before and they have all failed to capture the imagination of the public. I suspect a cheaper (and in colour) Kindle-type of reader is more likely to get mass adoption and succeed rather than a large iTouch - but then I'm not a multi-billionaire from my successes in computing either!
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2010 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think Apple will abandon the computer market. Remember it all started with the first real personal computer, the Apple II. But the iPad will definitely impact the netbook market, and may very well kill the netbook market off, which I think is what Jobs really wants to do. He has complete distain for the puny netbooks. The iPad combines the e-reader device with the netbook, thereby killing both markets. A large number of makers are already cutting back production of netbooks in the face of the iPad fad. And I don't think kindle has a ghost of a chance against the iPad.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 13, 2010 3:18 pm    Post subject: New Mac Book Pros And I Don't Care Reply with quote

Today Apple unveiled new Mac Book Pros that have really good features and are much faster and yet I'm not interested. I find this really interesting. In the past I've always ooohed and aaahed at the latest things in the notebooks. Since the iPad was introduced none of those other computers interest me.

The iPad concept and implementation is all I want. It seems that the few shortcomings mentioned at the launch have almost been handled by third party apps and by the upcoming iPhone OS.

The Opera browser has been approved, there are printing apps on the way, a file system is available, and multiple third party applications can be run.

There aren't too many more tweaks needed for the iPad. Once Apple adds a card reader or a USB in some form to it, the iPad will be the ultimate portable personal computer.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 01, 2010 11:29 pm    Post subject: More From Steve Jobs Reply with quote

I commented about my observation of Steve Jobs at the iPad announcement. Today I read a few quotations on Apple Insider from an interview with Walt Mossberg from the Wall Street Journal.

Here is what was posted:

The iPad and other tablet-style devices won't completely replace the PC, but they will make traditional computers less necessary, Apple co-founder Steve Jobs said.

Jobs spoke Tuesday at the All Things D Conference, and was asked by Walt Mossberg of The Wall Street Journal whether the iPad is going to replace the laptop. Jobs said the change from the PC is inevitable, but it's a question of how long the transition will take.

"The transformation of the PC to new form factors like the tablet is going to make some people uneasy because the PC has taken us a long ways," Jobs said. "The PC is brilliant.. and we like to talk about the post-PC era, but it's uncomfortable."

He compared the migration to the U.S. automobile industry, and when most U.S. vehicles were trucks because they were driven by farmers. He said that cars became more popular as cities rose, and features like power steering and automatic transition were added over time. "PCs are going to be like trucks," he said, noting that they will still be around, but will represent a smaller number of people.

He said that the timeframe for the transition is unclear, and it's also unknown whether the iPad will be the device that ultimately replaces the PC. But he said he believes the migration is inevitable.

Jobs was asked whether a lack of a keyboard makes the iPad not an ideal device for content creation. Jobs responded by saying that people can use a Bluetooth keyboard if they really need to write something longer. He also said the software on devices will become more powerful and allow more features for users. "Time takes care of lots of these things," Jobs said.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think right around the time of the Flash debacle, Jobs pretty much said desktops and laptops are pretty much gonna die in a few years.

I'll restate - until I can run what I want, give me a computer. Especially considering the latest BS with the App Store.

SC
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 4:46 am    Post subject: Re: More From Steve Jobs Reply with quote

Smallwheels wrote:
Jobs was asked whether a lack of a keyboard makes the iPad not an ideal device for content creation. Jobs responded by saying that people can use a Bluetooth keyboard if they really need to write something longer.

Wow. It's nice to see that Apple is showing a real commitment to the needs of content creators.... "Here's a bluetooth keyboard!" Rolling Eyes

Once upon a time, Apple thought very differently about the relationship between its products and creative people....
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About the only thing you can’t do is ignore them. Because they change things. They invent. They imagine. They heal. They explore. They create. They inspire. They push the human race forward.

Maybe they have to be crazy.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As long as there are college students, there will be laptops IMO...

Who would bring an iPad, a stand, and a bluetooth keyboard to class? Thats too much crap, which is why I bought a MBP. I do hope, however, that the release of the iPad moves more text-book companies to offering their text-books electronically. If I could just carry my MBP and a few notebooks to class, that would be awesome. As its been, I have a crate full of books in the back of my car which I have to use as a locker and change out so that I don't hurt my back and/or overload/rip my backpack...
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