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Windows 7 : Is Microsoft fudging the figures ?
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strollin
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 24, 2009 9:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's an interesting article showing the trend for Win 7 to pass OS X for market share: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9141424/Windows_7_passes_Mac_OS_X_in_market_share_race

One interesting quote from the article:
Quote:
With a week left in November, Windows 7 currently sports a 3.9% monthly average. At its current pace, it will reach 4% for the month, which means Microsoft's newest OS will have easily beaten Vista's first four months of market share gains.

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Aquafire
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the link Strollin.

"By Net Applications' account, Windows 7's share has been steadily growing since its Oct 22 debut. The first week after its launch, the new operating system accounted for 2.7% of all operating systems used worldwide; it climbed to 3.3% in the second week, to 3.7% in the third and to 4% during the fourth week post-debut."

The first thing to note is that those figures and percentages provided are meaningful only in the context of every one of those W7 copies currently in circulation being fully paid for.

The second point to keep in mind is that almost all of that first weeks' 2.7% came from RC (Release candidate) (read unpaid) licenses that expire in June 2010.) The actual sales of W7 over the counter for the first week of release were less than 1%. Data sets I have previously provided confirm this point.

The simple fact still remains.

On the evidence provided : Microsoft is inflating the total market percentage of W7 by counting unpaid for licenses such as those listed above.

No doubt W7 will grow in overall sales, but it will be more a case of gradually absorbing Vista and XP users over the long period, than anything flashy and instantaneous like the market response was for W95, W98, W2000 & XP.

Microsoft is dreaming of repeating past glories. Sadly for them, those days are coming to a quick close.

As far as OS loyalty is concerned, computer users are increasingly sophisticated and looking for better, faster, smarter & more flexible OS's.

Price will matter for a lot of users, while for others the features etc will be far more important. Most especially features that will allow them to hook up to entertainment.

The days of sticking to One OS only are more or less coming to an end.

For Brand loyalty to stay relevant in this changing market : a company has to offer something special.

Unfortunately MS has a poor record in this arena.

Aqua
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strollin
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think your argument is valid but I wonder how many of those RC1 copies will be converted to a paid copy when they expire? Personally, I ran RC1 on several machines (including my Mac mini) until Win 7 shipped but now run paid for copies. I think MS was smart for doing the RC and RC1 betas as they got a lot of people to test and use Win 7 and report bugs and even though a certain percentage of people are still using those unpaid copies, most of them will be converted because those people won't want to revert back to Vista or XP when their RC copy expires so they will be forced to buy a copy.
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Aquafire
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree Strollin.

A certain percentage will shell out. I suspect that when the time comes, we will see a slight fall in the number of legitimate licences held for the OS. However by that time, the percentile difference will probably be less obvious than if those same RC's were cut out today. So it will be marked by a slight downward trend of less than 1%. At least that is my prediction.

I am currently holding onto my freebie RC 7100 version and with any luck will time my purchase with a major update designed to fill in some of Window 7's shortcomings.

The beta testing idea is good, but hardly novel. Apple did it with the move to OS X & virtually every Linux / BSD operating system that I know of does the same.

On a passing note, its funny how some of the fan boys get their knickers in a twist about eyecandy and gui's. In this forum, one MS W7 is ironically getting stuck into a OS X fanboy while using the Eyecandy argument.

All the more ironic that in terms of "eyecandy" alone W7 takes a great big leaf out of OS X own book.

http://tinyurl.com/yhdwcop

Aqua

Ps : Yes I'm OS-Agnostic on that issue.
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Of the four X systems in the world.

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OS X : LinuX : UniX or MS-BolloX.


Last edited by Aquafire on Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
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bkspero
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 8:19 pm    Post subject: Interesting discussion Reply with quote

Aquafire wrote:

On the evidence provided : Microsoft is inflating the total market percentage of W7 by counting unpaid for licenses such as those listed above.
Aqua


The data cited in the computerworld.com article came from Net Applications' data on online operating systems. It seems pretty objective to me. They seem more than fair to Apple, comparing W7 to total users of OS X. Are they in MS pocket?

I'm skeptical about MS' "demise". There is a massive installed base of Windows computers in large organizations that will upgrade to W7 once the IT departments justify their salaries and play with it for a while. The fact that there is not a path to upgrade in place from XP to W7 isn't an issue. IT departments will set up a standard disk image and broadcast a clean install.

So far my experiences with W7 have been very good. We had replaced all but one Win computer with Macs over the past couple of years. In June I installed the RC to dual boot with Vista on that computer, and it was rock solid. All my software installed and worked perfectly. Including some pretty esoteric technical stuff.

My experiences with Snow Leopard were not as good. Two computers were eligible for the $9.95 upgrade. One runs a program that still has not been updated for SL, so I can't upgrade it (the publisher says that Windows is a much larger market for them so they first had to concentrate on W7 compatibility and got a late start on SL). On the other one, I am one of those who suffered the "Guest" issue that wiped out the data on my primary account. Fortunately I keep it backed up and it was only an inconvenience. But the contrast with W7's reliability was striking. I also use that computer for in a home theater, and Front Row didn't work. So I had to roll back to Leopard until 10.6.2 finally fixed that issue. Overall these were really only irritations, but these issues combined with the good experience with W7 have made me reconsider our wholesale switch from PC to Mac.

Apple hardware is far and away of higher quality than most PC hardware, and it can justify its price premium for many. But I think that the OS gap is closed for now. Maybe when software starts exploiting Grand Central and GPU power SL will pull ahead. But not now.
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Aquafire
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Interesting discussion Reply with quote

bkspero wrote:


I'm skeptical about MS' "demise".


My perception is one of gradual diminishment rather than obliteration.

Business rely on hired IT staff to point them in the right direction. It's hardly in any IT depts' interest to do themselves out of a job by recommending Google Chrome + Cloud Computing. At least not for the short term.

When it comes to IT expenditure, companies are generally very conservative with only a few trailblazers taking a punt. So MS is safe for now, but as I have endeavored to point out to MS Fan-boys, the market has changed since XP was released.

MS will still be a big player, but in the future, it will no longer hold onto 90% of the market.

I predict it will drop over the next ten years to something more like 50% to 60 % of the market. Apple, Google & Linux/Unix will carve a larger chunk of the market in the future. This can only be a good thing in my books, because it encourages competitiveness, which in turn drives down price.

bkspero wrote:

I think that the OS gap is closed for now. Maybe when software starts exploiting Grand Central and GPU power SL will pull ahead. But not now.


I use W7 and while I take your point, there are some things that are frustratingly dumb. Ie Why didn't they put a spell check in Wordpad ?

For my part, I have yet to find the perfect OS that will do all.

So as a result, I tailor my OS use according to whatever task I am doing.

Aqua
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bkspero
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 9:18 am    Post subject: Re: Interesting discussion Reply with quote

Aquafire wrote:

I use W7 and while I take your point, there are some things that are frustratingly dumb. Ie Why didn't they put a spell check in Wordpad ?

For my part, I have yet to find the perfect OS that will do all.

So as a result, I tailor my OS use according to whatever task I am doing.
Aqua


I missed that about Wordpad...I don't think that I ever use it. I may use Notepad rarely for capturing simple text, and Word for more ambitious documents. A fair criticism, and an interesting yardstick of the quality of W7 that we have to point to an issue like that as a problem.

I agree with your assessment about no OS being perfect. I think that MS over reaches trying to offer all things to all people in terms of drivers and customization. It makes for big problems with compatibility and security. They should be more like Apple and just cut off users (see my 4 yr old forelorn PPC Mac mini which can't run SL). And OS-X is way easier to install, configure, and manage because of this. OTOH, Apple, it seems to me, has lost its strength in video and mulitmedia. Neither iMovie nor Final Cut Express can edit HD AVCHD! And Front Row is a joke compared to W7's Windows Media Center.

Finally, you make an excellent point with Chrome and the cloud. I rarely think of those factors...I think I still associate the cloud with the old days of server based systems that were slow and clumsy. I could see those disrupting everything for both MS and Apple. No need for elegant OS or exceptional hardware when all you need is, essentially, a glorified terminal running a basic OS to access all that you need in the cloud.

Thanks for the discussion. Barry
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