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Windows 7 : Is Microsoft fudging the figures ?
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Aquafire
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 4:14 am    Post subject: Windows 7 : Is Microsoft fudging the figures ? Reply with quote

Is Microsoft fudging the figures for Windows 7 uptake ?

Now that the media's rapturous applause for Windows 7 has died away, what is the real situation with Windows 7.

Headlines like Windows 7 up 234% higher than Vista can be misleading.

While there is no doubt there are more copies of Windows 7 being put to use in the field, when compared to the same sort of after release time frame for Vista; the question for Microsoft to answer is this...

How many copies of Windows 7 have actually been sold ?

This is a legitimate question & one that no Microsoft director will answer.

Regardless, a fairly reasonable estimate can be made; but it does not bode well for Microsoft. And here are the reasons.

While Microsoft itself has stated that W7 has now reached between 4% to 5% market share, its the how that share is made up that should be causing Microsoft some deep concern.

First, because of the systematic way in which Microsoft has rewarded Vista users with a cheaper upgrade licence : while ignoring their XP users; this has meant that a large percentile of that 4% to 5% of W7 users is actually made up of ex Vista users and not XP users.

This first fact that can be drawn from the graphs is that W7 has gained market share from Vista and not from XP. A cursory examination shows that XP has remained fairly static at between 60% t0 70% of the market.

The second fact concerning W7 uptake is that Microsoft has added all the pre-release RC candidate versions to its percentage of W7 use figures.

The graph and figures do not lie. Notice the percentage before W7 was actually released to the public ?





http://marketshare.hitslink.com/os-market-share.aspx?qprid=11

And if you need further proof, then consider two other interlocking matters.

1. In the same month it launched W7, Microsoft cut 800 employees from its pay books.

2. Fueling this sense of the world being underwhelmed by W7, Microsoft has been forced to scrounge around for markets that would normally fall into the shadow of the USA, Western Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia etc.

In fact, they have had to rely on claims such as "Eastern Europe leading the way in Windows 7 Adoption".

That is hardly a ringing endorsement..

Leaving aside all the hacked versions of W7 already floating around the net, (W7 may hold the record for the fastest pirated OS ever) ; this means that collectively speaking, Windows 7 has has been a relative flop.

Please don't misunderstand me, I use W7 & I like it. But that doesn't mean that all the masses of Windows XP users will migrate to OS-7.

Why should they, when MS has clearly chosen to play favorites with Vista users. And why should they, given that MS has already telegraphed the fact that W8 is only 24 months away?

All these things could be turned around if Microsoft decides to seriously slash the price of W7 & makes the migration for Xp users as easy as it has done for Vista users.

But all that is in the hands of Microsoft.

In the meantime, I end this post by asking...

Is Microsoft fudging the figures for W7 ?

I'll leave it for you to decide...

Aqua
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 4:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've got to say I've heard very little, actually I've heard nothing from any windows users.

I'm usually the guy at work / home that everyone comes to for computer advice and I've not had a single person mention windows 7. Even at uni there hasn't been a buzz about the windows 7 launch. I would have expected a few people at least to have mentioned how much better Windows 7 is, that they had finally been able to ditch Vista, or even just a passing comment along the lines of "Have you tried Windows 7 yet". I've not had a single conversation along those lines, the only ones I have is where I have asked them and the answer has been, No I'm not bothering yet. People have mainly complained about the high costs of the upgrade.

So I'm not convinced the take up has been that good.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm stumbling at one of you first items.

Since the upgrade cost the same no matter what you are updating from, how is it more expensive for XP users than Vista users?

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Aquafire
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Smithcraft wrote:
I'm stumbling at one of you first items.

Since the upgrade cost the same no matter what you are updating from, how is it more expensive for XP users than Vista users?

SC


Its my understanding, that if your using XP, you can't upgrade directly from XP using the 'upgrade' disk.

It will install, but fail upon activation.

The upgrade disk costs as little as $49 for Vista users.

Whereas, the XP users have to fork out the full retail price.

Eg Ultimate is $229.

If I am wrong on this let me know, but this is the situation in OZ at least.

Aqua
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aquafire wrote:
Smithcraft wrote:
I'm stumbling at one of you first items.

Since the upgrade cost the same no matter what you are updating from, how is it more expensive for XP users than Vista users?

SC


Its my understanding, that if your using XP, you can't upgrade directly from XP using the 'upgrade' disk.

It will install, but fail upon activation.

The upgrade disk costs as little as $49 for Vista users.

Whereas, the XP users have to fork out the full retail price.

Eg Ultimate is $229.

If I am wrong on this let me know, but this is the situation in OZ at least.

Aqua

You are wrong. When MS says you can't upgrade from XP to Win 7 they mean you can't do an "upgrade in place". You can do a clean install, replacing XP with Win 7. Activation is not an issue. This, of course, does mean that all of your apps must be re-installed. A clean install is the preferred method anyway since it will generally result in a more stable installation.
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Aquafire
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

strollin wrote:

You can do a clean install, replacing XP with Win 7.


Already know this and have clearly said so.

strollin wrote:

You can do a clean install, replacing XP with Win 7. Activation is not an issue.


Activation is not an issue if you by a full install version.

However, XP users on the net, have reported, attempting to use this particular upgrade path has allowed the upgrade install to work, but for the activation to fail.

As regards price.

What you have failed to mention is that Microsoft is doing special deals for certain Vista users.

Following the 'upgrade path" they only pay $.9.95.

http://tinyurl.com/kn7yob

XP users do not get this special discounted offer.

Aqua
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 8:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aquafire wrote:
strollin wrote:

You can do a clean install, replacing XP with Win 7.


Already know this and have clearly said so.

strollin wrote:

You can do a clean install, replacing XP with Win 7. Activation is not an issue.


Activation is not an issue if you by a full install version.

However, XP users on the net, have reported, attempting to use this particular upgrade path has allowed the upgrade install to work, but for the activation to fail.

As regards price.

What you have failed to mention is that Microsoft is doing special deals for certain Vista users.

Following the 'upgrade path" they only pay $.9.95.

http://tinyurl.com/kn7yob

XP users do not get this special discounted offer.

Aqua

If you have XP installed on a machine then the upgrade will install itself, replacing XP with Win 7 and putting the XP files into a folder called Windows.old. This installation will activate properly. The issue I think you may be referring to is if you try to use an upgrade disk to install Win 7 on a blank disk with no previous OS. In that case you need to do a bit of hoop jumping. You can do the install but then don't activate then re-install a second time and do the activation. An upgrade must find a previously installed (qualifying) OS in order to install and activate. The alternative would be to install XP on the disk then use the upgrade disk to do a clean install of Win 7.

I could care less about the price since there are so many ways to get discounts on the price that if one pays full retail price for the product they are a fool.

I personally paid $40 for a full retail version of Win 7 which I used to install on my XP system. I feel I got far more for that $40 than what Apple gave me when I upgraded my mini to Snow Leopard for $10. To this day, other than the small amount of recovered disk space, I can tell no difference between Leopard and Snow Leopard.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

90% market share for Windows OS. That's a pretty good monopoly. J.P. Morgan and John D. Rockefeller would be proud to welcome Gates into their robber baron club of industrialists.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MacDSmith2 wrote:
90% market share for Windows OS. That's a pretty good monopoly. J.P. Morgan and John D. Rockefeller would be proud to welcome Gates into their robber baron club of industrialists.


Is not that simple.

90% is mostly made up of dead wood.

Xp & Vista are adding virtually nothing to Microsoft's current profitability.

Like a car yard filled with yesteryear's cars, non of which give the original manufacturer any more income, (other than a few spare parts & upgrades)..

Microsoft's is in the same position.

In fact, in terms of current in the now revenue generating OS's.

OS Snow Leopard has 2.85% of the market compared to Windows 7's 2.15%

And remember Windows 7 was at 1.83% of the market in September.

That means fully 2/3rds of W7 licenses being tallied up to make the current 2.15%, are free RC or even hacked versions.

Thats why I think MS is troubled.

Aqua
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anybody that believes any data coming from MS about Windows, or any company they've paid, has to be losing their mind.

As Aqua said, MS is in trouble, it's falling and it can't get up...

Now if I can only find a college student to get me a copy of Win7...I'll upgrade my Vista. I don't know how long, if at all, the job will have W7.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 11:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, reports are that Bing is losing ground to Google; The Zune is going nowhere against the iPhone; the one retail store Microsoft has is not exactly burning a rug against the Apple Store explosive growth; with Windows 7 stealing from Vista and not separating XP users from their wallets, and Netbooks cutting the OEM margins for new PC's, you do have to wonder what the future revenue stream for Microsoft is going to come from.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 20, 2009 3:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MacDSmith2 wrote:
...you do have to wonder what the future revenue stream for Microsoft is going to come from.


From selling Apples on street corners perhaps. Wink

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2009 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Smith,

The cost, financially, is the same whether moving from Windows XP or Windows Vista however when migrating from Windows XP to Windows 7 you will not have an "in place upgrade" option. You will however have the option to select "custom" install when prompted. The Windows 7 install process will then copy all of your data in "My Documents" over to a Windows.old folder within Windows 7 itself. All applications and documents stored in other locations will have to be reinstalled / transferred manually.

For more information on the Windows 7 Upgrade, please go here: http://bit.ly/3DvynK

For additional assistance with the migration of Windows XP to Windows 7, please go here: http://tinyurl.com/mhbep4

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JessicaD wrote:
All applications and documents stored in other locations will have to be reinstalled / transferred manually.


Which is exactly why my utility is not bothering to upgrade 200,000 XP computers to Windows 7 anytime in the next two years, and I dare say same for a lot of other companies running XP. So that is a big revenue stream Microsoft is not going to get in the next 24 months from entrenched XP users, because Microsoft made it a pain in the butt to migrate from XP.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JessicaD wrote:
Smith,

The cost, financially, is the same whether moving from Windows XP or Windows Vista

Jessica


Sorry Jessica,

This is simply NOT correct.

For Vista users who bought their machines between certain dates leading up to the release of W7; the upgrade price they pay is $9.95.

Microsoft themselves say so.

Where I was in original error was in thinking that this covered ALL Vista users.

Everyone else pays full price.*

Aqua

*Apart from giveaways, special educational institution deals etc.
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